A new analysis published in The Lancet warns that without immediate policy intervention, over half of the world’s adult population (3.8 billion) and a third of children and adolescents (746 million) could be living with overweight or obesity by 2050. This alarming trend is expected to result in a global health crisis, with increased premature disease and death rates across local, national, and global levels.
The Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators revealed a dramatic rise in obesity rates over the past three decades. In 1990, 731 million adults and 198 million children and adolescents were affected by overweight and obesity; by 2021, those numbers had surged to 2.11 billion and 493 million, respectively. The study forecasts a staggering 121% increase in obesity rates among young people by 2050, with 360 million children and adolescents projected to have obesity.
Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) emphasized the dire consequences of the obesity epidemic, calling it a “monumental societal failure.” She stressed the urgent need for governments to prioritize populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity, identifying those requiring immediate treatment and those needing prevention strategies.
The analysis utilized data from over 1,350 sources, including national surveys, to forecast obesity trends across 204 countries and territories. For adults, the study defined overweight as a BMI between 25 and 30 kg/m² and obesity as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher. For children and adolescents, the study adhered to the International Obesity Task Force criteria.
Global Obesity: A Rising Tide Across All Regions
The analysis reveals a troubling global trend, with 60% of adults expected to live with overweight or obesity by 2050. In 2021, nearly half of the world’s adult population was already affected, with 1 billion men and 1.11 billion women living with obesity. The prevalence of obesity has more than doubled since 1990, with alarming rates in regions like Oceania, North Africa, and the Middle East, where countries such as Nauru and Tonga report over 60% of adult populations living with obesity.
High-income countries, especially the United States, show similarly distressing statistics, with approximately 42% of men and 46% of women affected by obesity in 2021. The study predicts that the global rates of overweight and obesity will continue to rise sharply, with sub-Saharan Africa and Asia expected to experience some of the most significant increases, fueled by population growth.
By 2050, an estimated 3.8 billion adults will be living with overweight or obesity, with China, India, and the U.S. projected to have the largest number of affected individuals. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see the most dramatic growth, with obesity rates in the region set to rise by over 250%, reaching 522 million adults by 2050.
Children and Adolescents: A Generation at Risk
The global prevalence of overweight and obesity among young people has also seen a dramatic rise. In 2021, 493 million young people aged 5-24 were affected, with the number of children and adolescents living with obesity tripling since 1990. The study forecasts that by 2050, the global number of children and adolescents with obesity will rise by 186 million, reaching a total of 360 million.
Countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to bear the brunt of this rise, with one-third of the world’s children and adolescents with obesity living in these regions by 2050. If current trends continue, obesity rates among young people in countries such as Nigeria, India, Brazil, and China will soar.
However, there is hope for intervention. Co-lead author Dr. Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia argues that preventing the complete transition to obesity is still possible, provided immediate action is taken. She stressed the need for multifaceted strategies to curb the rising tide of obesity, particularly targeting children and adolescents in Europe, South Asia, North America, and other high-risk regions.
A Call for Immediate Action and Policy Reform
The authors of the study urge immediate action to curb the rise of obesity, calling for global five-year action plans (2025-2030) to help meet future health goals and targets. Stronger political commitment is needed to reform diets, reduce overnutrition, and create environments that encourage healthy living.
Dr. Kerr emphasized that the focus should be on low- and middle-income countries, where obesity is rising alongside undernutrition. Preventative measures should include regulating unhealthy food marketing, promoting healthier diets, and encouraging physical activity, particularly in schools. Without concerted action, the study warns, the world risks facing a generational health disaster.
As the obesity crisis continues to unfold, experts call for a deeper understanding of its causes and for long-term interventions to prevent further escalation. According to Thorkild I. A. Sørensen of the University of Copenhagen, addressing this epidemic requires public health initiatives that account for both macro-level and micro-level factors, particularly among socially deprived populations.
In conclusion, the study stresses the urgency of tackling the obesity crisis head-on, with policies that prioritize nutrition, physical activity, and health promotion across all age groups and regions. The next decade will be critical in determining whether the global community can reverse these devastating trends and prevent the catastrophic health consequences that lie ahead.
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